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Trading Methods in Forex and Index

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发表于 2020-2-29 10:52:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Strong stabilization signals: the several continuous confirmations (at least four times) of supportive peaks or bottoms points in a week. Shape of supportive peaks or bottoms: the first peak or bottom point must ascend or descend from previous bottom or peak by at least 10 points; spanning 30 minutes between any of two peak or bottom points; rebounding at least 10 points in the middle trend between two points for accurate high leverage trading tool; at least 10 points rebounding down from each peak point (or up from each bottom point); + - no more than 5 points between the first two points; the third point can refer to either of previous two points, and the fourth point can refer to any of previous three points. This strong signals of EUR/USD must be counted very exactly within +- 5 points range between two supportive points. For the strong stabilization of peaks signals, the stabilization trend starts descending from or above the strong peaks level and the descending trends must go across all the peaks levels; for the strong stabilization of bottoms signals, stabilization trends starts ascending from or below the strong bottom level and the ascending trends must go across all the bottoms levels. Currency exchange signals: there must be both strong peaks and bottoms signals shown concurrently (as defined by currency exchange operation), and the points between both of them is usually approximately 30 points (the ranges from the highest peak to the lowest bottom must be less than 35 points). For the trading of currency exchange signals for basic currency pair EUR/USD in short term with optimal bonus targets of 50 points stabilization trends, it is applicable on setting up selling orders when the ascending trends exceeds above the first strong peaks signals (at least four or more peaks) forming in a week by more than 5 points, and the stop-losing is at 50 points above the selling orders (45 points higher to the strong peak level only); the buying orders setting up is in the inverse way; However, there are several trading conditions to optimize in short term: 1. if the strong signals releases stabilization trend by approximately 40 points (more than 35 points) without this familiar signals firstly, it is not to trade this signals again; 2. the strong stabilization signals doesn't stand in short term if it starts around the open price of a week without apparent trends (less than 40 points trends between weekly peak and bottom). For example, on 10-11/12/2019, the first currency exchange signals is counted before apparent trends (40 points) is shown (three of four supportive bottoms are counted before apparent trends is shown), then short main starts to rebound back from exactly 100 points to it; 3. For example, on 05/02/2020 the currecny exchange signals occurs, which is closed to last signals of currency exchange on 30/01/2020 (+- less than 0.5% ranges between two continuous currency exchage signals), so it goes down sharply to more than 200 points below the strong bottoms. Indeed, there are currency exchange signals continuously for three times around this level. For another example, currency exchange signals are continuously shown over 04-11/10/2019 at the same price level for more than twice, so that the short main rebounds from 190 points above it with single peak; 4. Another one is when the first currency exchange signals is 'trapped,' then the second currency exchange signals occurring in a week may rebound without 'exceeding points', which becomes the strenthened rebounding signals. In this case, it is cautious to follow the previous long main or short main again. For example, the second currency exchange signals occurs on 25/02/2020 for GBP/USD (the first currency exchange signals occurs on 24/02/2020, which is trapped, and it is not to follow the long main again, but it rebounds strongly), the second currency exchange signals occurs on 20/02/2020 for USD/CHF (the first one occurs on 18/02/2020, which is trapped, and it is not to follow the long main again, but it rebounds strongly), the second currency exchange signals occurs on 05/03/2020 for AUD/USD (the first currency exchange signals occurs on 03/03/2020, which is trapped, and it is not to follow the long main again, but it rebounds strongly); 5. To optimize the short term trading, when the optimal price setting up orders occurs at the end stage (after the EU business hours on Thursday at 15:00 PM), it is to set up orders at more than 25 points exceeded to the currency exchange signals. The above methods is also applicable on USD/JPY trading in short term.

For the middle term trading (to test the rebound trends after 100 points or more points to the currency exchange signals), the second currency exchange signals (at least showing strong stabilization signals) at the range of more than 100 points to the first currency exchange signals must be shown again to confirm the rebound trends (If the second strong peaks or bottoms are shown at the range of less than 100 points to the first currency exchange signals, the second trading signals may suit for short term trading only without targeting the first currency exchange signals such as 10-11/10/2019). For the middle term trading, the stop-losing is still 50 points inversely to the lastest strong peak signals for selling, or to the lastest strong bottom signals for buying. For example, if there is currency exchange signals at 1.1000, and the strong peaks trends is not released at the short term with upwards trend only, when there's strong peaks again at 1.1200 to confirm, then it is to test the rebound down trends above 1.1200. The stop-losing of selling orders is 1.1250; If the strong peaks at 1.1200 is shown around the open price of a week, the stop-losing of selling orders is 1.1206 only; If there are two continuously strong peaks around 1.1200 price level, the stop-losing is 1.1206 as well. In the later two cases, the third strong peaks at higher price is usually confirmed to rebound. For the strong stabilization signals occurring by continuously twice at the similar price level, if the 'exceeding points' is the opposite directions between two signals, the trends would go towards the same direction. Otherwise the second strong signals would be inactive if the 'exceeding points' is the same direction. For example, on 19-20/02/2020, there are continuous two currency exchange signals of EUR/USD. The first exceeding points is below it as buying signals, and the second one is above it as continuous signals. For example, on 03-04/02/2020, there are continuous two currency exchange signals of USD/CHF. The first exceeding points is below it as buying signals, and the second one is still below it again. Then it descends sharply by more than 500 points, ineffective one. In this case, the third strong bottom signals must be shown again at lower price to confirm this buying signals. For another example, if it rebounds from more than 150 points to the currency exchange signals (for example, it rebounds from 1.1270 to 1.1000), it usually re-touches the middle term peak (1.1270) after more than 100 points rebound in the middle (for example, it should rebound down from 1.1270 to 1.1160 firstly and then ascends again to re-touch 1.1270 peak, targeting 1.1000 finally). In this case, cashing trading without leverages in Bank of China is the optimal tools in terms of a combination of both exchange rate and Forex Futures trading fees. The exchange rate of major currency pairs is only less than 0.3% in Bank of China, and the Futures trading fees is approximately 6 points for major currency pairs. For example, when EUR/USD reaches long main targets and subsequently aims to short main targets, EUR is exchanged into USD and USD is used as cash deposit to sell EUR/USD by Futures tool in Bank of China. This fees is much less than other banks globally, which charges the trading fees of at least 1% in this methods.

For the trading of  GBP/USD and AUD/USD in the short term (less than 100 points apart to the first currency exchange signals), the second confirmation of currency exchange signals (at least strong peaks signals or strong bottom signals) are required again within a business week for rebounding trends. The stop-losing is 50 points as well.

Trading rules: EUR/USD firstly. EUR/USD is the reference currency pair, and is given prority to the other currency pairs which are playing role in followers only. For example, when EUR/USD targets the middle-term long main price at 1.1000 on Feb 2020, JPY, CHF, AUD and GBP follows the long main targets in sequences correspondingly. After long main targets is achieved, CHF is seemingly over-bullished to its short main targets before EUR/USD shows short main targets firstly. This is cautious to set up orders for the other currency pairs without EUR/USD firstly, and the points of trading targets is also determined by EUR/USD. For example, if EUR/USD starts to rebound from 100 points above the short main targets, then AUD/USD may follow this short main from 100 points above to the previous currency exchange signals. In the past year, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD shows the best performance in the short term trading, and EUR/USD and GBP/USD shows the best performance in the middle terms. AUD/USD and USD/JPY is shaked by hedge currency pair AUD/JPY, but is still predictable. USD/CHF performance in the past year is even worse than GBP/USD under Brexit events in this methods, which is totally disgarded. GBP/USD well plays the role in following steps, which gives the buffer function in post-time trading to reduce the risks.

China A50 index trading --- shape of supportive peaks or bottoms: the first bottom point must descend by at least 100 points from the previous peak or the first bottom point is counted as the lowest open price of a business day in China; then rebounds up by at least 100 points as middle peak point in the middle trend; finally the second bottom point is within 50 points apart to the first bottom point as supportive point. Trading methods: when there are two supportive bottoms forming, and the middle peak point is exceeded by ascending trends, this is defined as the standard buying signals (or the ascending trends must exceed the previous peak point from a bottom point which descends by more than 100 points from the previous peak point, and this is considered as buying signals too without two supportive bottoms); when there is a single peak point leaving as the middle term target of long main, the optimal time to enter the market is after 1000 points descending trend for the first buying orders, targeting the single peak. At this time, the second buying signals is usually shown as strengthened signals to confirm the long main trends. Please note: the optimal bonus target is 1000 ascending trends and double confirmation of buying signals is required to set up buying orders. If the ascending trends is sealed by two supportive peaks after 1000 ascending trends, it is essential to gain the bonus. Inversely, if there are two supportive peaks and subsequently the descending trends exceeds the middle bottom point, this is the selling signals. However, buying orders is only applicable on China A50 index trading, due to the politics strength interference.   

Please note: Interactive brokers would release sharp trends at the transient time of turning over Futures at 06:00AM, and this would not be the slipery points, which definitely is taken into considerations. It is cautious to pre-set up orders over this sensitive time if there are currency exchange signals (for example on 20/02/2020 EUR/USD). This case indicates that the optimal price ('exceeded points') setting up orders in this method should occur from EU to US business hours normally, but the shart trends at this transient time must be taken into consideration for making decision. It is fine to trade USD/CHF and USD/JPY over 24 hours instead, and both currency pairs do not show the sharp trends at the transient time of turning over Futures at 06:00AM in Interactive Brokers, so it is also fine to follow both of them in the middle term. The points calculation is based on the data detrived from Activtrades, the most exact data in market. For example, on 27/02/2020, the third highest peak is 110.454, and the fourth peak is 110.403, so that the currency exchange signals does not form.
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